Navigating Environmental and Energy Changes under Trump
Summary
President Trump's environmental and energy policies will change significantly from those of the Biden administration. Although he did not specifically lay out environmental priorities, there are core themes his administration will focus on, including:
Increasing fossil fuel usage and domestic production;
Repeal of the Biden Administration climate agenda and clean energy tax credits;
Repeal of vehicle emission and fuel economy standards;
Exiting the Paris Climate Agreements;
Permitting and deregulation reform.
However, as we saw during the first administration, many of these rollbacks and policies will be challenged or overturned in courts. Blue-leaning states will play a central role in resisting Trump’s environmental rollbacks. For example, during the first Trump administration, Democratic state attorneys filed 160 lawsuits.
What Could Change
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The fate of many of the energy and tax provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act remains uncertain. Along with tax credits, these bills contained $100 billion in climate, clean energy, and environmental grants. The Biden administration has been working overtime to ensure these grants are given out. The Trump administration may discontinue some of these programs or change its focus to support oil, gas, and coal.
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The President-Elect will move the United States away from clean energy and focus on deregulation and supporting fossil fuels. During the campaign, Trump continued to blast the IRA and its clean energy provisions. Although his administration may be unable to rescind the IRA (it would require a majority of votes in the House and Senate), they can still impact funding that has not been allocated yet and further deregulation. However, there is bipartisan support for certain wind and energy tax credits in the IRA. It will be interesting to see how this dynamic plays out.
We do know that much like during his first term, one of Trump’s initial actions is expected to be reversing the EPA's climate pollution limits for coal-fired power plants. -
The Biden administration enacted the most significant climate legislation in history, allocating unprecedented funding to combat climate change. In contrast, a Trump administration is unlikely to prioritize similar initiatives. Instead, its focus will center on achieving "energy dominance."
With key nominees to energy leadership positions, there are strong indications that the administration will adopt an "all-of-the-above" strategy. This approach primarily emphasizes oil and natural gas development while supporting other energy sources such as solar, wind, and nuclear power.
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Trump has committed to reducing business regulations, including environmental regulations. He said he would remove all red tape on the campaign trail. His administration will most likely target new state laws that seek to hold oil and gas companies accountable for pollution and climate change. He will also take on California’s new law, allowing them to set vehicle administration standards. These actions may have a cooling effect on other states wanting to pursue similar laws.
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During Trump's first presidency, the EPA was significantly weakened, with key agencies like the Office of Environmental Justice dismantled and a hiring freeze imposed. During his second term, it is highly likely that he will continue to withhold funding from these departments.
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Trump will reverse or halt the United States entrance into the Paris Agreement and further decrease greenhouse gas emissions regulations under the Clean Air Act. Not surprisingly, most or all funding for climate change mitigation will be eliminated.
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During Trump’s first administration, he reversed the Obama administration's Clean Water Rule, which protected the nation's streams. During his second term, many other rules that protect waterways are vulnerable. For example, Project 2025 calls for the EPA to review a rule regulating PFAS. In addition, the Biden administration recently announced a rule that mandates all lead drinking water pipes to be removed by 2027. There is speculation that this will be revisited or the timeline will be pushed back.
In Context
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As mentioned, Republicans have embraced an “all of the above” energy strategy, supporting policies that foster economic growth through traditional and renewable energy sources and keep production in the USA. This approach has included federal incentives for clean technologies, wind, and solar, which have created jobs and investments in many Republican-led districts.
The renewal energy sector is growing rapidly, with 40% of electricity coming from renewable sources. A global push towards new energy generation will continue even during the Trump administration. For example, many of the most Republican-leaning states in the USA are leaders in wind and solar production.
In addition, any Trump regulatory changes will face some procedural hurdles. Unless finalized after August 2024, revising or repealing Biden-era environmental policies requires a lengthy rule-making process, slowing any efforts to dismantle existing regulations. The IRA adds further complexity. Passed with bipartisan support, the IRA has funneled significant funding into Republican districts, creating jobs and economic opportunities. For many members, repealing the IRA would risk political backlash and economic losses at home.
Lastly, state and local governments will continue to pass environmental and energy laws that tackle climate change as they did in the previous Trump administration.
Trump’s second term will slow down the U.S.’s commitment to combatting climate change, but there are still opportunities for continued progress.
Opportunities for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania
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State and city-level responses to President-Elect environmental policies will vary. For instance, some states may benefit from a renewed focus on domestic energy supply while other coastal states must fund climate migration from state dollars.
PA is well-positioned to take advantage of the Trump administration's energy policies. As a large producer of oil and fossil fuels, Pennsylvania companies will benefit from the shifts in priorities under the Trump administration. For example, Trump has said he will remove all red tape stopping natural gas pipelines into the Marcellus Shale.
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After setbacks during the Wolf administration, the Shapiro administration has been working towards creating a state-based alternative (PACER) to a cap-and-trade program. A key part of the plan would allow PA to cap carbon emissions and require companies to pay a pollution fee. With a new administration in the White House, there will be more pressure for the program to become law in PA.
During his first administration, Trump had a mixed record on nuclear energy funding and loans. This will be an area to watch and see if it grows as the Shapiro administration has tried to invest heavily in expanding nuclear energy in PA. With more incentives, PA could develop more sites and expand job opportunties in a key sector.
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Philadelphia has received over $55 million in funding from the IRA and will use those funds to fight climate change. This work has already started or is currently in the developmental stage. Besides the IRA, Philadelphia receives additional federal funding from the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency(EPA), which could be at risk. This includes the energy efficiency and conservation block grants ($1.3 million) currently used to support four energy-efficient projects in Philadelphia communities and schools. In addition, green workforce development grants, such as PowerCorpsPhl’s EPA grant and the Climate Pollution Reduction grant that supported community-driven solutions to climate change, will not be expanded or renewed.
During the Trump presidency, the Philadelphia government and local foundations will need to fill in the funding gaps to continue Philadelphia’s green initiatives. For example, the Philadelphia City Fund may see increased usage as a vehicle for public-private partnerships in the environmental and energy sectors.
Funding from the city and philanthropic community will be essential, especially in underserved communities, as the Trump administration will all but abandon environmental justice initiatives.
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